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It was supposed to be Iowa’s closest contest of 2008, with observers and pundits pointing to Democrat Becky Greenwald’s challenge of incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Latham as a race to watch on election night.
But when the polls closed, it quickly became clear that voters wanted to send Latham back to Washington, and in the end, he coasted to a 20-point victory and carried all 28 counties of the 4th Congressional District.
So how did this race go from hotly contested to blowout? The answer, most say, can be found by looking a both candidates’ bank accounts.
According to paperwork filed with the Federal Election Commission on Oct. 15, Latham, of Ames, had $775,000 cash on hand compared to a little more than $25,000 for Greenwald, of Perry. While Greenwald out-raised Latham in July, August and September, she spent almost all of that money on an early television advertising campaign to introduce herself to voters, a move that left her campaign with no money in the final weeks of the race.
“When she ran out of money and went dark on television in the weeks prior to the election, that was it,” said Tom Henderson, chair of the Polk County Democratic Party. “Several polls showed Greenwald creeping up on Latham before that, but with no advertising push Latham pulled ahead.”
If she’d had the resources to stay on television, the race would have been much closer, and “maybe she would have even won,” Henderson said.
Dennis Goldford, political science professor at Drake University, said defeating an incumbent is always a tall order, but to do so while being outspent by huge margins is an uphill struggle.
“She simply didn’t have enough money,” he said. “She didn’t have a lot to work with.”
And the television ad campaign was biographical, drawing no distinctions between the Greenwald and her opponent.
Many thought the endorsement of EMILY’s List, a group that funds Democratic women candidates who support abortion rights, and the inclusion of the 4th District race in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” list would bring an influx of cash into Greenwald’s coffers. But that support never materialized, and while Greenwald was able to purchase a 60-second television ad the night of Barack Obama’s 30-minute national address, her campaign was off the air in Iowa very early in the race.
Latham on the other hand had ads up all the way through Election Day, both on television and radio, including one that criticized Greenwald for saying she would have supported the $700 billion Wall Street bail out bill if she were in Congress. Latham voted against the bail out twice.
“Tom Latham is just not a firebrand like (Republican U.S. Rep.) Steve King,” said Tim Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa and adviser to the school’s campus Republicans. “So a lot of people, even those who consider themselves Democrats, are going to vote for Latham because he’s the incumbent. That’s the disadvantage a challenger has.”
Even though Obama carried a majority of the district’s counties, Greenwald was still defeated by a large margin. In Story County, home of Iowa State University, Obama garnered 26,268 votes, or 57 percent, for president, to Republican John McCain’s 18,812, or 41 percent. Latham recieved 24,236, or 55 percent, to Greenwald’s 20,107, or 45 percent.
“There were a lot of ticket-splitters,” Goldford said. “Obama’s coattails just were not long enough to oust a veteran incumbent like Tom Latham.”
For the first time, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans in the 4th, but a lot of that was Republicans who registered as Democrats to caucus for Obama, Henderson said. So even though Obama’s appeal to moderate Republicans contributed to his victory nationwide, those Republicans were less likely to support Democrats down ballot.
“Iowans are always reluctant to fire incumbents,” he said. “I just think that was a tough race from the beginning.” |
